Engineering
Position-Level Orphan Detection: Why Heartbeat Monitoring Isn't Enough
A 16-hour outage taught me that bot liveness and position safety are separate monitoring concerns. The gap between them is where losses live.
June 4, 20267m read
Engineering
The Kill Switch Doesn't Save You. The Drill Does.
Every autonomous system needs a kill switch. Almost no one actually runs the drill. I did — and found two production bugs hiding inside tests that passed.
April 2, 20267m read
Engineering
Hermes: A Political Oracle That Bets on Polymarket Using AI News Intelligence
Political prediction markets don't move on charts — they move on information. Hermes is a Python bot that scores political markets using Grok sentiment, Perplexity probability estimation, and calibration consensus from Metaculus and Manifold. Here's how it works.
March 4, 20268m read
Engineering
Leverage: Porting the Foresight Signal Stack to Crypto Perpetuals
The signal stack I built for prediction markets turns out to work on perpetual futures — with modifications. Here's how a 9-factor scoring engine, conviction-scaled leverage, and six independent risk gates become a perps trading system.
March 4, 20268m read
Engineering
Shiva: A Sports Prediction Bot That Hunts Mispriced Polymarket Odds
Sports prediction markets are inefficient because the crowd prices on narrative, not data. Shiva is an automated bot that estimates true probabilities from team stats, injuries, and media sentiment — then executes when the edge is real.
March 4, 20268m read