WorkShiva
SPORTSTRADING

Shiva

6-factor sports edge model. NBA and MLB on Polymarket.

Shiva interface
NBA/NFL/MLB
Sports
ML + Stats
Edge Model
Polymarket
Markets
Daily
Adapts
// What It Does

Shiva hunts Polymarket NBA and MLB game-day markets where the model's probability diverges from the market price by ≥5%. Moneyline, spread, over/under, and player props — anywhere there's real information edge against a crowd anchored to recency bias and narrative. 243 unit tests, 12 Playwright end-to-end tests, 92% coverage.

The 6-factor probability model pulls from ESPN's unofficial API (no key required) for NBA stats, injuries, team form, and schedules, plus the MLB Stats API for baseball data. Each estimate combines: home court/field advantage, rest days differential, recent form (last 5 games), injury impact, head-to-head history, and media sentiment from Perplexity. The edge calculator then computes EV, Kelly fraction, and signal strength before the risk gate decides whether to act.

Market types supported: MONEYLINE (game winner), SPREAD (point spread), TOTAL (over/under), PROP_POINTS, PROP_REBOUNDS, PROP_ASSISTS. The trader filters price 0.10–0.90 to skip near-resolved markets. ShivaClaimer runs in the background monitoring resolved markets and updating PnL in real time.

Named for the Destroyer. Markets that underestimate variance get destroyed. GAMMA API polling every 30 seconds. SQLite logging to shiva.db. Mission Control /shiva page with 4 tabs: Positions, Performance, Controls, Signals.

// Live Interface
SHIVA · SPORTS EDGE
min edge ≥5% · 2026-03-04
MATCHUP
SPORT
MODEL
MARKET
EDGE
SIGNAL
Lakers vs Celtics
NBA
62%
$0.52
+10%
BET YES
Chiefs vs Ravens
NFL
55%
$0.58
-3%
SKIP
Thunder vs Nuggets
NBA
71%
$0.60
+11%
BET YES
Yankees vs Red Sox
MLB
48%
$0.53
-5%
SKIP
adaptive ML · updates post-game● 2 signals today
// Architecture
SHIVA — SPORTS PREDICTION ENGINE
Scan → Evaluate → Execute → Learn · 30s cadence
DATA LAYER
external feeds · no API keys required
NBA Feed
ESPN · stats + injuries
MLB Feed
MLB Stats API · pitching + form
Media Analyzer
Perplexity · lineup news
Sports Scanner
GAMMA API · 55+ NBA events
DECISION ENGINE
probability estimation · 6 weighted factors
Market Classifier
moneyline · spread total · props
Sports Strategy
home court · rest · form injuries · H2H · sentiment
Edge Calculator
Kelly criterion · EV SIGNAL: STRONG / MODERATE
EXECUTION LAYER
risk gates · CLOB orders · outcome claiming
Risk Gate
daily loss limit position cap · cooldown
Polymarket CLOB
FOK market orders Paper / Live mode
Claimer
resolve outcomes track PnL
LEARNING LAYER
adaptive weights · calibration · dashboard visibility
Signal Logger
SQLite · every evaluated market gets recorded
Trainer
Brier score · log loss Kelly factor calibration
Mission Control
Training tab · accuracy weight drift · history
Free public APIs — no credentials required
6-factor probability model
DRY_RUN=true by default
Self-improving via resolved outcomes