Hermes autonomously bets on Polymarket political, geopolitical, and macroeconomic markets using a 4-component AI signal composite. 133 tests, 95% coverage. Default bet: $5 USDC. Scans 1,970+ open markets every 5 minutes, filters to political keywords, scores with four independent feeds, bets when composite ≥ 70/100.
The signal architecture: GrokFeed (0–30 pts) — xAI's grok-2 model analyzes X/Twitter sentiment, post volume, and directional agreement among political commentators. Score = |sentiment - 50| / 50 × 30 × conviction_multiplier. NewsFeed probability (0–30 pts) — Perplexity sonar model returns a calibrated YES probability and confidence level; 20%+ divergence from market price yields 25+ pts. Breaking news bonus (0–15 pts) — same Perplexity call; if BREAKING_NEWS=yes, adds 10 × confidence_multiplier + 5 if divergence ≥10%. Calibrator (0–25 pts) — queries Metaculus and Manifold Markets, averages consensus, buckets the edge vs Polymarket price.
Direction is determined by majority vote across the three directional signals (GrokFeed, NewsFeed, Breaking news bonus); the Calibrator adjusts confidence and edge weighting but does not vote on direction. Total score ≥ 70 triggers a FOK market order via Polymarket CLOB with a 30-minute cooldown per market to prevent re-entry on stale signals.
Sister project to Foresight — same execution layer, different domain. Where Foresight bets on crypto prices, Hermes bets on who holds power. HERMES_DRY_RUN=true by default.